transparency lab research

the research.

what we're watching. what the filings say. what we think it means.

Research notes are shorter than our deep coverage. Each covers a company, a sector, or a market structure question. We tell you what the data shows and what we think it means. Primary sources. Specific numbers. Our own read.

published 2 notes live
research note · equity · technology · march 2026
the AI compute denominator problem.
$310 billion committed. the supply chain to deliver it does not exist yet.

Four hyperscalers committed over $310 billion in 2025 AI infrastructure spending. The same annual filings that announce these figures disclose the constraints: ASML ships 44 EUV systems per year worldwide. Three companies produce all HBM memory. TSMC holds a near-monopoly on advanced packaging. US power grid interconnection queues average two to five years. The commitment and the capacity are not on the same timeline.

key number$310B+
bottlenecks4 mapped
filings reviewed12 cited
read the note →
live equity autos
the EV margin trap.
→ Seven automakers. Seven promises. Tesla's operating margin: 17.2% to 7.3% in two years. Ford's 10-K discloses a $64,700 loss per EV sold.

Auto operating margins fell across every major OEM from 2021 to 2024. On earnings calls, the explanation was consistent. The annual filings say otherwise.

key number-9.9 pp
OEMs covered7
publishedmarch 2026
in progress 1 note coming
in progress capital markets SPACs
SPACs: where the money went
→ 861 SPAC formations. Sponsor economics vs. public investor returns across all 2020 to 2021 vehicles. A sector post-mortem with specific numbers.

Every SPAC has a sponsor who paid roughly $25,000 for shares that became worth hundreds of millions. We're tracking what happened to the public investors on the other side of that trade.

statusin progress
sectorcapital markets
formatresearch note
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